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SEVERAL major economies are teetering on the brink of recession, and for a small, trade-reliant country like Malaysia, it is highly impossible to escape the impending crisis unscathed.
In fact, economists are saying that the strong economic recovery seen in Malaysia so far – an expansion of 6.9% in the first half of 2022 – may have reversed course.
As such, the new Malaysian government, post-15th General Election, will have a lot on its plate to deal with.
Whichever party forming the government will need to navigate a decelerating economy and prop up domestic sentiment.
Manufacturing activities have shrunk for two straight months, and worryingly, Malaysia and Myanmar were the only Asean countries that have experienced a contraction in October’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
Last month, a member of the National Recovery Council called for “aggressive action”, pointing out that small and medium enterprises are suffering due to slowing business.
Meanwhile, continued interest rate hikes are causing consumers to scale back on spending. Considering that Malaysia is significantly driven by private consumption, a more prudent consumer spending would weigh the economy down.
The good news is that inflationary pressures have shown signs of abating. Supply chain issues are easing and companies have been delivering their backlog orders.
Malaysia also remains supported by strong exports performance. In September, exports expanded 30.1% to RM144.3bil, marking the highest monthly value for the month of September.,
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The strong performance was partly due to the weak ringgit that has fallen by over 13% year-to-date.
In less than a week, the gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22) will be unveiled.
Economists, in general, are expecting another strong performance, potentially surpassing the 8.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth seen in 2Q22.
Earlier in the first quarter, the economy grew by 5% y-o-y.
Socio-Economic Research Centre (SERC) executive director Lee Heng Guie’s “crude estimate” indicates that the economy has expanded by 9.8% to 10.5% in 3Q22, amid the weakening global environment.
Such a growth is partly aided by the low-base effect, according to him.
“Robust domestic demand is still underpinning the economy. The services sector will be supported by resilient strength in consumer spending.
“The continued expansion in manufacturing is due to the still strong exports of electronics and electrical sector.
“The mining sector will see a strong turnaround while the construction sector will recover gradually due to high cost of building materials, the shortage of workers and slow launching of new housing developments,” Lee tells StarBizWeek.
TA Research, in a note yesterday, says that the GDP is likely to have grown by 10.5% in 3Q22.,